As the election nears many predict at least one house of Congress going Democratic. A reigning in of GOP abuses of power will then follow, say some. This remains to be seen. Our two party system almost guarantees few earthshaking results from election day. Despite gerrymandering of Congressional districts by legislatures to insure that incumbents stay in power it appears that in as many as one tenth of the races (perhaps 40 of 435) real contests are taking place. Normally safe Republican seats ARE in play. In California we see John Doolittle and Richard Pombo – young turk conservatives given a lot of power by the GOP hierarchy – running for their lives.

Even loyal Republicans seem unhappy with the Bush administration’s ham-fisted mis-management of the Iraq war. It blunders along with no goals outlined and no strategy apparent. Wanting “to win” is nice, but like “wanting to lose weight” one does need a plan. None has been articulated regarding Iraq despite 3 1/2 years of war (and fresh rumblings about how 20,000 more troops are needed). The continued bad habits of the GOP-led federal government, which continues to borrow $300-400 billion more than it takes in (with no end in sight) is also disturbing the party faithful – finally. Things are looking good for the Dems, but…luckily for Karl Rove the GOP has just gotten an October surprise from a New Jersey court on gay marriage. It might save the day.

See: http://news.independent.co.uk/world/americas/article1935933.ece and: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/26/AR2006102601565.html This is THE opportunity to energize the hard-core Republican religious base.

Americans are willing to grant homosexuals the same rights spouses enjoy via civil unions and other legal remedies. In state after state, however (including a deep BLUE state like California) they draw the line at calling this “marriage”. That word is critical. California has voted Democratic for president 4 times in a row, but the Knight Initiative a few years back – which defined marriage as a heterosexual union – didn’t just win, it won 2:1, a landslide.

Some gay activists have been determined to push this issue hard now. That it is political suicide does not trouble them. The New Jersey ruling, released pre-election, has put wind beneath the wings of a floundering George Bush who has immediately seen some reversals of fortunes in polls. In 2004 San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsome won praise from the cities vast gay community with his order to grant marriage licences to homosexual couples. It didn’t turn out to be much of a breakthrough. State authorities lined up to quash the practice and it WAS halted. Across the nation the effect of this election year move was electrifying – to the GOPs base.

Remember: in Ohio alone, despite all the irregularities and fraud under Kenneth Blackwell – which kept hundreds of thousands of Democratic votes from being counted – a switch of 59,000 votes would have made Kerry president. Gay marriage, or opposition to it, motivated big numbers to go to the polls. Enought to change the outcome? ALMOST certainly.

The lesson here has NOT been gleaned by activists. If the expected Democratic resurgence flops on November 7th no one will be more at fault than those who are not satisfied with achieving the goals of civil unions, but instead went for broke on making the public accept homosexual “marriage” as being exactly that. The public has been unwilling to to do this almost everywhere east of the Bay Bridge. Its dumb politics could turn out to be disastrous politics.

Some folks need to wake up and smell the coffee.Midterm Elections, The Iraq War and Gay “Marriage”